Kentucky Derby Favored Horses Bets, Odds & Predictions 2020

It’s no secret who will be favored in Saturday’s delayed running of the $3 million 2020 Kentucky Derby. Place your bets! Below, horse betting predictions and latest odds.

Kentucky Derby Betting Preview & Horses to Bet On in 2020

Tiz the Law, four-for-four in 2020 and winner of six of seven lifetime starts, has dominated his competition this year and could be the first odds-on favorite (less than even money) in the Run for the Roses since 1992, when Arazi went off at 4-5.

But as fans with long memories will recall, Arazi faded to seventh after making a menacing wide move around the far turn of the 1 ¼-mile race for 3-year-olds, leaving 16-1 shot Lil E. Tee to key a $854.40 payoff on a $2 exacta.

The 146^th running of America’s most famous horse race is a very different animal than the 1992 edition – especially given the four-month delay from it’s normal spot on the calendar on the first Saturday in May due to the coronavirus pandemic. There also will be no fans on the usually packed Churchill Downs grounds due to restrictions on public gatherings aimed at slowing the spread of the disease.

But the point remains that anyone willing to take a stand against Tiz the Law has a chance of making a life-changing score, given the array of “exotic” wagers such as superfectas, Pick 4s and the like, which weren’t available in 1992.

The question for anyone pondering a Derby bet is not whether Tiz the Law can be beaten – of course he can – but whether the Barclay Tagg-trained colt’s anticipated low odds justify backing him at that price.

On the plus side of the ledger, the son of Constitution has already run and won at the testing 1 ¼-mile Derby distance, the only horse in the field who can stake that claim. And the apparent ease with which he’s been winning suggests he has more gas in the tank if he needs it.

He’s also being handled by a veteran trainer who already has won a Derby for Tiz the Law’s owners,  collectively known as Sackatoga Stables, turning the trick in 2003 with another New York-bred, Funny Cide.

But this is the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby, where big fields often translate to troubled trips. And it’s worth noting that Tiz the Law’s only loss came at Churchill Downs, when he checked in third in the slop in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Cup in November.

Whether you decide that Tiz the Law is vulnerable or not, the next stop in the process remains just as important: Which other horses in the field stand the best chance of outrunning their odds and adding value to the payoffs, whether the favorite wins or finishes off the board?

That is where we will focus our attention in hopes of helping you find your way to that life changing score, or at least end the day with more money in your pocket than you started with.

First, let’s look at the likely starters in Saturday’s race, which will be broadcast nationally on NBC starting at 2:30 p.m. ET on Saturday. With two days remaining until Tuesday’s post position draw, which will be livestreamed from 11-11:30 a.m. ET on KentuckyDerby.com and televised live on Fox Sports 2, it appears 14 colts, two geldings and a ridgling (a male horse with one or more undescended testicles) will face the starter.

The expected field in order of Kentucky Derby points & betting odds 2020:

Horse                     Trainer                          Jockey                   Estimated odds                 Balanced line       Win%

Tiz the Law               Barclay Tagg               Manny Franco                 1-1

Authentic                  Bob Baffert                 John Velazquez               8-1

Art Collector             Thomas Drury            Brian Hernandez Jr.        5-1

Honor A.P.                 John Shiriffs               Mike Smith                       6-1

Ny Traffic                   Saffie Joseph Jr.        Paco Lopez                       15-1

King Guillermo          Juan Avila                   Samy Camacho               20-1

Thousand Words      Bob Baffert                Florent Geroux                12-1

Max Player                 Steve Asmussen       Ricardo Santana Jr.         20-1

Enforceable                Bill Mott                     Adam Beschizza              25-1

Major Fed                   Gregory Foley            James Graham                30-1

Storm the Court         Peter Eurton              Julien Leparoux              30-1

Attachment Rate        Dale Romans             Joe Talamo                      30-1

Sole Volante                Patrick Biancone       Luca Panic                       35-1

Finnick the Fierce       Rey Hernandez          Martin Garcia                 40-1

Winning Impression   Dallas Stewart           Joe Rocco Jr.                   50-1

Necker Island              Chris Hartman            Miguel Mena                 50-1

Money Moves             Todd Pletcher            Javier Castellano            40-1

As the chart shows, many accomplished horses will offer attractive odds once you get past Tiz the Law.

Here are five I will be focusing on as I construct my Kentucky Derby 2020 bets (predictions):

Honor A.P

He won’t exactly be a long shot, but he could go off in the 6-1 to 8-1 range given he lost his last prep race, the Shared Belief Stakes at Del Mar, to Thousand Words. The afore-referenced ridgling  also is handled by a Derby winning trainer in John Shirreffs, who guided Giacomo to a shocking 50-1 upset in 2005. the son of Honor Code and grandson of A.P. Indy also will be making his third start off a layoff in the Derby, a pattern that often yields a top effort.

Authentic

With such high-profile connections as Hall of Famer Bob Baffert and jockey John Velazquez, Authentic likely won’t be completely overlooked by the bettors. But I’m banking on the fact that many handicappers will be unable to put his desperate nose victory over Ny Traffic in the Haskell Invitational Stakes at Monmouth in July out of their minds. In that 1 1/8^th-mile race, Authentic opened up a 2 ½ length lead in the upper stretch and appeared to be home free when Ny Traffic rerallied and just missed catching the winner. That was just Authentic’s second race at the distance, so he has room for improvement. I’m also encouraged by the old-school mile workout that Baffert put into him last week to build his stamina.

Ny Traffic

If you like Authentic at all, you’ve got to like Ny Traffic. He’s hit the board in his last four starts, all graded stakes, while finishing close behind some of the leaders in the 3-year-old division, including injured Matt Winn Stakes winner Maxfield. Trained by the up-and-coming conditioner Saffie Joseph Jr. and ridden by Paco Gonzales, a Derby first-timer, he seems likely to be overlooked by the bettors and should offer double-digit odds. The speedy son of Cross Traffic also showed a new dimension when he rallied in the Haskell stretch run, giving his connections additional options as they plot their Derby strategy.

King Guillermo

A storybook purchase by former Major League Baseball star Victor Martinez, who is now headed to the Derby with one of the first three horses he bought at a 2019 sale in Florida after retiring from the hardball game. The son of Uncle Mo is traveling an unusual route to the Derby, with only workouts to prepare him since he last ran second to the now-retired Baffert runner Nadal in the second division of the Arkansas Derby on May 2 at Oaklawn Park. But his trainer Juan Carlos Avila won nearly 3,000 races in his native Venezuela before relocating to the U.S. in 2018, so I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt, especially given the colt’s obvious talents. There’s another reason to root for King Guillermo: Martinez, Avila and rider Samy Camacho, all Venezuelan transplants, are seeking the reprise the shocking upset by the Venezuelan-owned, -trained and -ridden Canonero II in the 1971 Derby.

Money Moves

If you’re looking for a real “bomb,” Money Moves may be your colt. A late entry from the barn of Derby winning trainer Todd Pletcher, the son of Candy Ride will be making just his fourth lifetime start in the Derby after winning two of his first three. That’s a tough ask, but Money Moves has been developing quickly late in his 3-year-old season and appears capable of hitting the board in Louisville. Also interesting is that Prioritize, a tough older horse who beat Money Moves by a neck in his last race at Saratoga, is being aimed for the Grade 1 Woodward Stakes at Saratoga on the same day as the Derby.

The post Kentucky Derby Favored Horses Bets, Odds & Predictions 2020 appeared first on American Gambler.

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